Tuesday, November 13, 2007

A Tale of Two Surface Stations*

--by Horatio Algeranon

We’ve heard conversations,
Of surface stations,

“Quite worthless, without reservations.”

“The tennis courts,
We must report,

Have made thermometers jump and snort.”

“The barbecues,
Have made the news,

The station managers have no clues.”

"Their AC units here and there,
Have heated surface station air,
But Hansen does not seem to care."

"And burning trash?
How very rash

The surface record’s quite a hash.”

“The definitive test?
Use only 'The Best,'

You may as well just chuck the rest.”

So John V** sat,
And did just that,

And warming "skeptics" gasped “Oh, drat!

“The result's the same,
How very lame,

Now, what ever shall we blame?”


*The title refers to two US Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) weather stations -- at Orland, CA and Marysville, CA -- featured prominently on the homepage of surfacestations.org. From the corresponding captions and temperature records, one might be tempted to conclude that "well maintained and well sited USHCN stations" show a cooling trend over the 20th century, while "not-so-well maintained or well sited USHCN stations" show warming.

But avoid the temptation. Just two sites are hardly representative of the entire USHCN network. The USHCN station at Geneva, NY, a well sited and well maintained station run by Cornell University shows a warming trend over the twentieth century, as do many other "well sited and well maintained" stations across the country. Furthermore, superficial appearances are not always what they seem, as Tamino's analysis of the Orland and Marysville sites indicates.

**John V = John Van Vliet, author of OpenTemp.org "An Open Analysis of the Historical Temperature Record", which basically validates the results of NASA GISTEMP (James Hansen et. al.) for the US Lower 48, much to the chagrin, I am sure, of those who have claimed that the historical US surface temperature record was so "contaminated" by barbecues, air conditioners, blacktop, etc as to be unreliable at best -- and worthless, at worst.

For yet another take on the surfacestations.org effort, read this little ditty.