Monday, November 29, 2010

The Bristlecones


--by Horatio Algeranon


They stand like sentries on mountain ridges in the Great American Desert,
Forever guarding the same few square feet of earth
From the relentless onslaught of searing summer heat, icy winter cold, driving rain, crackling lightning, swirling snow and gale-force winds.


They survive for thousands of years,
Clinging to life more tenaciously than any other life form,
On barren land that holds only a few drops of moisture and few nutrients.


The only things holding them back from the abyss
Are the unwavering Sun and a narrow thread of live bark, feeding a few live needles and cones
Within a mass of mostly dead, gnarled and twisted branches, which point toward escape from the incessant winds.


Though some were living long before the birth of Christ, they know nothing of human history.
But they know the climatic history of their own microcosm by heart, having precisley inscribed it in their annual growth rings.


They patiently watch the passing of time -- the years, centuries and millenia -- with absolute indifference -- and certainly without complaint.
Each new hardship is simply endured like its predecessors -- and all those that will follow.


About the simple act of living -- and dying - the Bristlecone pines might reveal important secrets,
If we are not too impatient to stop and listen to the winds whispering in their branches --and not too proud to admit that a humble pine tree might have something important to tell us


Thursday, November 18, 2010

Persistent Red Noise

Hokey Shticks, Unprincipled Proponents, and Spurious Significance

-- by Horatio Algeranon

Ed Wegman is a copycat
There's really no debating that

His famed report has plagiarized
His stats were McIntyre-devised

Though sold as “Independent Review”
There's really nothing there that's new.

In essence, it is just rehash
"Repete" with drama and panache.

Noise with perfect autocorrelation
To infinity without vacation.



Dedicated to Johnny Deep

Based on the findings of John Mashey and Deep Climate (here and here, for example) and inspired by a comment at Tamino's by Steve Metzler:
 
DC has proven that the ‘statistics’ were just a re-run of McIntyre’s code, using McIntyre’s saved data! So in essence, even the statistics were plagiarised :-)

..and also inspired by this:

"their method [that of Mann, Bradley, and Hughes] when tested on persistent red noise, nearly always produces a hockey stick shaped first principal component*..." -- McIntyre &McKitrick
*but M&M greatly exaggerated the effect by assuming climate "noise" with uncharacteristically (unrealistically) high/long "persistence" and by "illustrating" with "samples" drawn from a stored compilation of the most "hockey sticky" of the results (top 1%)  --as illuminated by Deep Climate (here and here)  and David Ritson here.

Horatio actually prefers the following statement (which, as it turns out, is about as meaningful as the M&M version)

"the method of Mann, Bradley, and Hughes when tested on persistent red nose, nearly always produces a jolly old elf (and his "team", of course)"
The latter is illustrated here. (Note the shape)


Update: Nov 23, '10

Experts claim 2006 climate report plagiarized (USA Today)

Climate science critic responds to allegations (USA Today)