High Claims Shifter

 -- by Horatio Algeranon

He shifted into Climate City
From a weather blog, that was so pretty

With pics of claimed "contaminations"
At USHCN Surface Stations.

"Hang 'em high" is what he said
"Until the upward trend is dead."

But the Climate townsfolk flat refused
They said "The data should be used"

"The trend is real, if you do the math"
"Don't chuck the baby with the bath."

The High Claims Shifter anxiously laughed
"Just take a look at what I've graphed"

"It's widely cited (on Fox News) 

'The Impact of Flaming Barbecues

On temperatures at Surface Stations' --
With perfect R-squared correlations!"

"My Nobel paper is in the works
That proves those NOAA folks are jerks."

The Shifter rode off toward the sun
Which made some think that he was gone

But he re-appeared in a later year
"I have returned... and looky here"

"The trend in means might perchance be real" 

But who even cares?, cuz here's the deal"

"What I've been saying all along
Is 'Temperature extremes are simply wrong.' "

"Hang 'em high until they're dead
'The extremes are wrong' is what I said..."

Take a trip in the Horatio-back machine to an earlier and less goofy time (well, earlier, at least): Grassy Knolls and Rabett Holes.

Denial is a many-splendored thing

 -- Horatio Algeranon's version of the song by Paul Francis Webster 
("Love is a many-splendored thing")

Denial is a many-splendored thing,
To dispute the ice breaks earlier each spring
Denial is the contrarian's way of giving a reason to be living,
The fools-gold crown that makes a man king
Once on a high and mighty Capitol Hill
Two deniers lied and the science stood still
They were touched by money and how they did sing,
Yes, true denial's a many-splendored thing.

All My Surface Stations

-- by Horatio Algeranon

(after "All My Children", by Agnes Nixon, 

creator of the 41-year-running soap opera*)

The Hot and the Cold
The Good and the Poor,
The Weak and the Strong,
In Orland and in Marysville,
On Blacktop and on Grass
In Heat and in Cold,
In Tragedy and Triumph,
You are ALL MY SURFACE STATIONS

...and I love you all dearly...even if you did just disprove My Theory (that is mine)

*Horatio has just learned from a reliable source (to be left unnamed) that the final episode of "All My Surface Stations" has yet to be written and we can look forward to at least one more season of high drama.

For individual episodes from the series, you may (or may not) want to read A Tale of Two Surface Stations, Stalking the Wild Air Conditioner and Grassy Knolls & Rabett Holes.

The Craven

 -- by Horatio Algeranon
(with apologies to Edgar Allan Poe, The Raven)

Prophet!" said I, "Oracle of Climate!--prophet still, if God or Devil!
Weather temperature sent, or weather tempest tossed thee here unkind
Wrong, yet unembarrassed, about the surface stations harassed --
About these stations by NOAA haunted --tell me truly, help me find
Is there -- is there doubt in Chico?--tell me--tell me, help me find...
Quoth the Craven, "Nevermind."

How long has this been goin' on?

 -- Horatio Algeranon's rendition of the song by Ace

How long has this been goin' on ? 
Way too long has this been goin' on.

Well your friends with their denyin' persuasions
Can't admit that it's part of the trend
But I can't help but have my suspicions
That it ain't even close to the end

And you said you were never intendin'
To cherry-pick data this way
But there ain't any use in pretendin'
It ain't warmin' and that we won't pay

How long has this been goin' on ?
How long?
Way too long has this been goin' on.

Inspired by Tamino's post Favorite Denier Tricks, or How to Hide the Incline.

Bags and Hags

"Lies, damned lies and witchtisticks"

 -- by Horatio Algeranon

The climate-change denier bag of tricks
Holds ruby-red cherries and witchtisticks.

But any method will work just fine
As long as it tends to hide the incline.

"Witchtisticks" (var: wattstistics) = use of "witch sticks" (least squares regression lines) to "divine" the global temperature temperature trend and other climatological trends (sea ice extent, etc) over short time periods.

Q (from novice denier): Which witchtistick should I use?

A (from seasoned pro): Whichever witchtistick gives the biggest decline for temperature-- or biggest incline for sea ice and glaciers.

For more on "witchtisticks" read "Temperature Witching".

Emissions Omissions

--by Horatio Algeranon

"Why should we be making cuts
When factories in China emit like nuts?"

He asks, as his own factories fly
And open up shop in old Shanghai.

Temperature Witching

-- by Horatio Algeranon

To divine the trend on a 10-year scale
The following method will not fail:

Consult a fellow with Y-shaped stick
Who knows the ancient dowsing trick

For finding water underground
(Don't laugh, the science here is sound.)

He'll use the stick like dowsers do,
On temperatures from the Hadley CRU.

If it points down, our work is done.
If it points up, it's just the sun.

Added May 10

To find the temperature trend, some folks rely on "witching", while others (eg, Tamino: Five Years) use simple averaging.

Which do you trust?
Witching?
Or averaging?

Data points are successive non-overlapping 5-year means. Smoothed curves are a lowess smooth of the original data. (Graph by Tamino)

The effect of averaging is to smooth out the "bumps" (ups and downs from year to year) caused by "noise" (el Nino, la nina, etc), leaving only the "trend" which you can see is quite clearly upward -- despite what the man with the dowsing stick might tell you.