Remember the May!

-- by Horatio Algeranon

Leave it to Hank

To use Page Rank

To find the May

Already sank.

If you have no idea what Horatio is talking about (above or in general), you are undoubtedly not alone. But for the above, at least, reading this might help.

The "Skeptic Pokey"

(The original title also still works: "Hokey Pokey" )
-- by Horatio Algeranon

You put some data in

You take some data out

You put some data in

And massage it all about

You do the "Cherry Picky"

And you post it all around

That's what it's all about

You put your stats in
You take your stats out
You put your stats in
Correlate them all about

You do the "Batty Statty"
And you quote them all around
That's what it's all about

You put your graph in

You take your graph out

You put another graph in

And you tilt it all about

You do the "Laughy Graphy"

And you post it all around

That's what it's all about

You put some station photos in

You take some station photos out

You put some station photos in

Annotate them all about

You do the "Happy Snappy"

And you post them all around

That's what it's all about

You put your "theory" in

You take the logic out

You put your "fraud claim" in

And you blog it all about

You do the "Skeptic Pokey"

And you turn the public around

That's what it's all about.

Join in. Anyone can do it (and does).

The Excel Pokey

-- by Horatio Algeranon

(with apologies to children everywhere -- but no apology to Bill)

You put your column sums in,

You get your column average out,

You put your table average in,

And you paste it all about,

You do the Excel pokey

and you move your mouse around

That's what it's all about.

Inspired by Tamino's "Misalignment" post.

PS Horatio's losing it -- he knows. When you tangle with Goofy for as long as Horatio has, that's all you end up with.

Robbin the Hood

-- by Horatio Algeranon

They say they need the bucks "to lend"

But pay their bonuses without end.

They say they want to create jobs

But lay off workers ("...lazy slobs").

They say they care about public health

But leverage it to grow their wealth.

They say they workin' for the public good

But really, they jus' robbin the hood.

The (Non)Sense of "Science"

-- by Horatio Algeranon

Throwing darts

At data charts:

The sense of science

In certain parts.

Unbridled Stallion

-- by Horatio Algeranon

The Texas Governor isn't bound

By petty Constitutions

He's unrestrained by contracts

And New Year's resolutions.

In fact, he rises high above

The laws that govern masses

Of Jefferson and Hamilton

Newton and the gases.

A Parody of Verity

-- by Horatio Algeranon

Verity Jones can’t tell a lie

The name just won’t permit it

“Of course the data was cherry-picked

'Cuz how else could we fit it?”

"Fitting data" or, more precisely, "fitting a curve" to data is often done to "show" a certain relationship. For example, one might "fit" the data with a "sine" curve to show that the data has cyclical (repeating) behavior.

But one has to be very careful not to read too much into such "fits" for a couple reasons:

First, data can be "cherry picked" from a larger set to "show" a relationship that actually does not exist in the full data set. For example, if one selects from a bunch of randomly distributed data points only those points that fall close to a particular sine curve, it should be no surprise that they seem to show cyclical behavior. But the relationship is not real,  but only an artifact of the "cherry picking" process.

Second,  as the famous mathematician John von Neumann put it, "With four parameters I can fit an elephant, and with five I can make him wiggle his trunk".  In other words, even if one does not cherry pick, it's easy to fit pretty much any curve one wants to data, but that does not necessarily mean that the curve shows any real relationship in the data. To show that, one has to use statistics.

For context, read Tamino's "Fruit Loops"

Say it ain’t so, Joe

– by Horatio Algeranon

Said one Joe to another

“The sea ice is recovering”

The other to his brother

“Indeed what we’re discovering”

"It’s vexing, Joe, wherever we go

The people still confuse us

I don’t know why, but it is so

And Joe, it don’t amuse us."

 
There are so many Joe's claiming sea ice "recovery" these days, it's hard to keep them all straight.

Polar-bear feedback

-- by Horatio Algeranon

Polar-bear albedo, nearly 1,

Helps reflect the arctic sun

Keeps the arctic warming down

Even when the ice is gone.

"Albedo" is the fraction of the sunlight falling on an object that is reflected. For a white object like a polar bear, nearly all of the light is reflected (almost none absorbed), so that fraction is nearly 1.

Horatio would note that bloated polar bears doing the "side-stroke" maximize the above (negative) feedback because they lead to increased "polar-bear cover" of what would otherwise be open (dark, sun absorbing) water. (Live polar bears spend most of their time on the ice, which already reflects most of the incident sunlight, so the normal polar bear feedback is basically a wash).


As arctic sea ice cover decreases, (dead) polar bear cover increases and the two work in opposite directions with regard to changes in absorbed sunlight.

H/T Eli Rabett

Same old same old

-- by Horatio Algeranon

Nicotine is not addictive
Smoking doesn't lead to cancer
CFC's don't hurt the ozone
Consensus doesn't give the answer.


Acid rain is not corrosive
Doesn't kill the fish in lakes
Won't erode the limestone statues
The standard "proof" is all a fake.


CO2 does not cause warming
Doesn't make the sea-ice melt
Climate change is not alarming
Just the hand that Nature dealt.

"Der Process"

-- Horatio Algeranon's versification of the "Interview" of scientist Charles Monnett (and the PEER lawyer representing him) by Interior Department Inspector General (IG)

You said the charges would be clear
From the investigation here

I think what I said is not what you claim
"Charges" and "focus" are not the same

I never said a single thing
About any charges we would bring.

So what exactly is the criminal offense?
I'm simply trying to make sense

Of why the referral to IG
Without a crime for all to see.

Why would there be a criminal referral
Concerning the contract issues (plural)??

Yes, precisely, why waste time
If in fact, there was no crime?

Well, you know, that's just your view
No, it's not. It's a question for you.

How can a referral be justified
Without a crime at least implied?

Well, potentially there are many offenses
With the possibility of contract pretenses.

Based on the fact patterns that you see
You decide what a potential crime could be.

And what was the basis for this case?
I already told you to your face

I would not give you those details
Well actually, from these travails

You said we'd know it from the questions
But all we have is vague suggestions.

That isn't -- wasn't -- my understanding
Of the answer you're demanding.

I took your question as simply this:
"What's this about?, what's the gist?"

I'm quite surprised, you deemed it so pressing
To interrupt science with second guessing

Without a charge, your "fire alarm"
Has really done a lot of harm

I hope you do not find it rude
But if that is all, we will conclude.

For the actual (unversified) text of the "Interview", visit the Rabett's hutch

Update Sept 16

The following is from correspondence from Dr. Charles Monnett (through counsel)

to U.S. Department of Interior Office of Inspector General (Sept 8, 2011)

"Because there is no due process accorded in the IG process and Dr. Monnett is not allowed to see the evidence against him, let alone learn what the allegations precisely are, the IG investigation leaves an amorphous cloud of doubt that is difficult to dispel with facts." -- Dr. Charles Monnett (through counsel)

The Lost Photon

– by Horatio Algeranon

“I’m lost” the IR photon said

“This greenhouse has me on my head.

I started on my way to space

From earth and now I'm face to face

With the Terra surface whence I came

Up and down seem just the same.”

 

The only thing more lost than a greenhouse photon is the person who denies it.

 

Inspired by Arch Stanton's suggestion for who made "Solar Powered Wreck" famous: : "Commander Solar and the Lost Photon-men".

 

Horatio's brain works in strange ways. He can't help it.

Solar Powered Wreck

– Horatio Algeranon’s diversification of “Hot Rod Lincoln”

(by Charlie Ryan and W. S. Stevenson, 1955)

My pappy said, “Son, you’re gonna’ drive us to heck’

If you don’t stop drivin’ that Solar Wreck”

Have you heard the story of the “Solar One”

The Grand prix of the Formula Sun?

That story is true, I’m here to say

I was drivin’ the “Solar Way”

It’s got a vacuum-cleaner motor and it’s really souped up

That jet-ski body makes it look like a gup

It’s got no cylinders, but that ain't all

Got a solaro-drive, always stalls

With no carburetor and and no exhaust

An' only one gear you can really get sauced

It’s got safety tubes, but I ain’t scared

Brakes aren’t needed, tires fair

Sat in the parking lot late one night

The moon and the stars was shinin’ bright

Goin nowhere fast, oh what a thrill

Cars were passin like we was standing still

All of a sudden in a wink of an eye

A Cadillac sedan passed us by

I said, “Boys, that’s a mark for me”

By then the tail light was all you could see

Now the fellas was ribbin’ me for bein’ behind

So I thought I’d make the Solar unwind

Put my foot to the road and man alive

I shoved us on down into overdrive.

Wound it up to 9 or 10

My speedometer said that I hit top end

My foot was glued like lead to the tar

That’s all there is and there ain’t no more

Now the boys all thought I’d lost my sense

A picket fence looked like a picket fence

They said, “Slow down! I see spots!

That traffic light just looks like dots”

Took a corner, sideswiped a bike

Told the little kid to take a hike

My foot was clickin’ the guardrail posts

The guy beside me was white as a ghost

Smoke was comin’ from out of my shoe

And my leg was really hurtin too

Knew I could catch him, I thought I could pass

Don’t you know by then I’d be low on gas

We had flames comin’ from out of my side

Feel the tension, man, what a ride!

I said, “Look out, boys, I’ve got a license to fly”

And that Caddy pulled over and said “Want a ride”?

Now all of a sudden she started to knockin’

And down in the dips she started to rockin’

I looked in my mirror; saw a man on a bay

The cop was after my Solar Way

They arrested me and they put me in jail

And called my pappy to throw my bail

And he said “Son, you’re gonna’ drive us to heck’

If you don’t stop drivin’ that Solar Wreck”

 

 

Inspired by a comment by Kevin McKinney at Tamino's place:

 

"I spend inordinate amounts of time challenging one or the other or both [dishonesty or stupidity]. On today’s menu: “China’s CO2 absolves us from responsibility,” “warming is natural,” “it was warmer 125,000 years ago,” and “you don’t want the younger generation to prosper so you are trying to drive us to ruin with your worthless renewable energy.” (Yes, really. And to clarify, the perpetrator of that last farrago is not, himself, a member of said younger generation.)"

To see a picture of the original Hot Log Lincoln, click here.

Watterecovery of Sea Ice

-- by Horatio Algeranon

Watterecovery of sea ice it is

For paddling polarbears, indeed pure bliss.

For oil tankers it's heaven sent

Since much less money will be spent

Transporting arctic oil for dole
With bee-line routes across the pole.

If you still don't know Watterecovery of sea ice it is, read The Brain Drain.

Both Sides Now

-- Horatio Algeranon's perversification of the Joni Mitchell song
(Horatio is sorry, Joni. He truly is. The song is loverly)

Rows and flows of Pachauri hair

And IPCC castles in the air

And alarmist scientists ev'rywhere

I've looked at clouds that way.

But now they only block the sun

They change the climate for everyone

So many papers I would have done

But clouds got in my way.

I've looked at clouds from both sides now

As feedback and cause, and still somehow

It's cloud illusions I recall

I really don't know clouds at all

Manns and Jones and hockey sticks
The human driven temp uptick
And arctic sea ice melting quick
I've looked at graphs that way


But now it's just another show
You leave 'em laughing when you go
And if you care, don't let them know
Don't give yourself away


I've looked at graphs from both sides now
From Mann and Watts and still somehow
It's graph illusions I recall
I really don't know graphs at all


Web awards and feeling proud
To say "Conspiracy" right out loud
Dreams and schemes and circus crowds
I've looked at climate that way


But now old colleagues are acting strange
They shake their heads, they say I've changed
Well something's lost, but something's gained
In blogging every day


I've looked at climate from both sides now
From journals and blogs and still somehow
It's blog illusions I recall
I really don't know climate at all


I've looked at climate from both sides now
From up  and down, and still somehow
It's skeptic illusions I recall
I really don't know climate at all

Climate Scientist Andrew Dessler sums up the situation regarding clouds

"The usual way to think about clouds in the climate system is that they are a feedback -- as the climate warms, clouds change in response and either amplify (positive cloud feedback) or ameliorate (negative cloud feedback) the initial change. In recent papers, Lindzen and Choi and Spencer and Braswell have argued that reality is reversed: clouds are the cause of, and not a feedback on changes in surface temperature." -- from Cloud Variations and the Earth's Energy Budget (A.E. Dessler)

In his above linked paper (and his companion video of same name, Cloud Variations and the Earth's Energy Budget), Dessler points out serious problems (among them, apparent violation of energy conservation) with the latter "reversed reality" claim, concluding that there is "No merit to the claim that clouds cause climate change."

But Roy and Richard shouldn't feel bad. Even Joni Mitchell was confused by clouds.  


PS If you don't already know what "Rows and flows of Pachauri hair" look like, click here.

Truth Choppers

-- by Horatio Algeranon

IPCC chapters

Black copters

Earth scorching

Truth choppers.

For context, read The War Being Waged Against Us.

"The War Being Waged Against Us"

[with black helicopters]

-- Horatio Algeranon's versification of Roy Spencer

(Episode 2 of "All My Conspiracy Theories")

There's a war being waged against us

By the good-ol'-boy IPCC

Whose currency is group think

And agenda plain to see.

The wagons are being circled

With a report in preparation

The peers are being rewarded

With continued remuneration.

There's a bust-gut effort to ensure:

-- That nothing gets accepted

Which interferes with political goals

And policies enacted.

-- That any paper that does get by

Which challenges consensus

Is summarily discredited

With ad hominem against us.

Roy Spencer (from "The War Being Waged Against Us")

"We simply cannot compete with a good-ole-boy, group think, circle-the-wagons peer review process which has been rewarded with billions of research dollars to support certain policy outcomes."

"It is obvious to many people what is going on behind the scenes. The next IPCC report (AR5) is now in preparation, and there is a bust-gut effort going on to make sure that either (1) no scientific papers get published which could get in the way of the IPCC’s politically-motivated goals, or (2) any critical papers that DO get published are discredited with any and all means available."

(Saint) Peter Review

-- by Horatio Algeranon

If Peer Review

Were Peter Review

Would those rejected

Join Satan too?

 

 

 

In Christianity, Saint Peter is often portrayed as "The keeper of the keys of the Kingdom of Heaven" -- ie, God's personal doorman, tasked with deciding who gets in... and who goes (directly) to Hell (ie, does not pass Go[d] and does not collect $200).

The above was inspired by a post by Robert Grumbine in which he quotes his wife: "It's peer review, not God review."

Horatio has used his poetic license to change that to "Peter Review" (Forgive him, for he knows not what he do).

Flat as a Hatter

-- by Horatio Algeranon

"Goofy claims require goofy evidence"

Is what a wise old chap once said.

"The world is flat" requires a cat

Perched atop a hatter's head.

The Goebbeleo Complex

-- by Horatio Algeranon

Their tentacles are everywhere

In scientific journals

In hallowed halls of government

(And also in the urinals)

They even penetrate the bags

of Redenbacher kernels

With propaganda methods

Like those of Joseph Goebbels.

The "Goebbeleo Complex" (German: Göbbeleo -- pronounced Grrrbalayo)  is the belief that one is the great scientist Galileo being persecuted by the Nazi's (more specifically, by Hitler's chief of propaganda, Joseph Goebbels -- sometimes referred to by his blogging alias, "IPCC".)

H/T Eli Rabett.

The Brain Drain

-- by Horatio Algeranon

As sea-ice funnels down the drain

The climate "skeptics" go insane

Down is up and melt is freeze

And thin is thicken, if you please.

Warm is cold and water is ice

Watterecovery,very nice.

In the comments at Tamino's place "Bernard J." gives a great metaphor for the recent behavior of arctic sea ice: a coin spiraling down a "funnel" (shown here). As it spirals downward, the coin moves closer and further from the "center"  (due to the "wobble" of the coin). This variation imposed on the overall downward movement of the coin is analogous to the variation of sea ice cover from year to year (due to "weather wobble") superimposed on the overall downward ice (extent and volume) trend of recent decades.

Kevin Trenberth, is that you?

 -- Horatio Algeranon's versification of a rant by Roy Spencer at his blog

(Horatio took a few liberties, but very few)

Well, well...Kevin Trenberth, is that you?
Hiding behind a screen name as you do?
Your points are lame, our results were GLOBAL
-- And your straw men are ignoble.
If you even bothered to read our paper,
You would not be passing vapor!
OMG! You're wasting time and space
With red herrings at my place!
CONGRATS, OBSCURITY, YOU'RE THE FIRST TO BE BANNED
FROM THIS SITE, (your hide is tanned)
THE CHARGE IS EITHER CHRONIC IGNORANCE,
OR MALICIOUS OBFUSCATION. Take your preference.

Lest you think Horatio has significantly embellished, here's the original (unversified):

Well, well...is that you, Kevin Trenberth, hiding behind a screen name? First of all, our results were GLOBAL, so transport between regions are irrelevant to the issue at hand. Secondly, the lag associated with the heat carrying capacity was central to the point we were making!!! If you even bothered to read our paper, you would understand that! OMG! You are wasting time and space here with your straw men and red herrings! CONGRATULATIONS, OBSCURITY, YOU ARE THE FIRST TO BE BANNED FROM THIS SITE. THE CHARGE IS EITHER (1) CHRONIC IGNORANCE, OR (2) MALICIOUS OBFUSCATION. YOUR CHOICE.

The above was a response by Roy Spencer to a comment on Spencer's blog by someone posting under the pseudonym "Obscurity", which Spencer thought (for some inexplicable reason) was actually climate scientist Kevin Trenberth (For what it's worth, "Obscurity" says he's not).


The climate conspiracy continues...and involves the IPCC*, Al Gore, and even the editor of "Remote Sensing".

*"it appears the IPCC gatekeepers have once again put pressure on a journal for daring to publish anything that might hurt the IPCC’s politically immovable position that climate change is almost entirely human-caused. I can see no other explanation for an editor resigning in such a situation." -- Roy Spencer (in response to the resignation of the editor in chief of "Remote Sensing" over the recent publication of a paper by Spencer and Braswell that the editor says should not have been published)

Perhaps Trenberth is also in on it?

When it comes to sheer goofiness, Horatio's poems can't even touch this stuff.

Hamlet was clearly right: "There are more goofy things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy."

Holy Editor Resignation, Batman! (Stoat) provides further context.

Skeptical Peers

-- by Horatio Algeranon

Peer review

Is vital too

When Skeptic claims

Are made anew.

An important test of a true scientific skeptic is if s/he is also skeptical of Skeptic claims -- not simply of the consensus.