Tuesday, May 15, 2012

The Mathgic Box

--by Horatio Algeranon

"Plug and Play" Is what I say 
Don't worry whether it's "OK" 

To fit a curve to the nth degree 
And plot a graph of what will be 

Or take a trend on just two years 
Just fudge ahead, and have no fears 

The "Higher math" is where it's at
And magic, black-box math at that.

The Mathgic Box is really swank 
Dump data in and turn the crank

And what comes out, so I am told,
 Is worth it's weight in Fort Knox gold.






"Plug and Play" (also known as "Black Box") mathematics seems to be very popular in some circles -- eg, among climate "skeptics" and economists* (who also seem to make up a not insignificant fraction of climate skeptics, coincidentally. )

Physics? Chemistry? Biology? Reality?

Who cares about that stuff?

Just plug the data into the "Mathgic Formula" and see what comes out. That's it! No need to understand the underlying assumptions of the mathematical model and whether the model is valid for the particular problem at hand.

*Black-Scholes ( "a mathematical model of a financial market containing certain derivative investment instruments")   is a perfect example. As we know, all those economists and financial "analysts" plugging and playing with Black Scholes to price options in the derivatives market in the years leading up to the recent economic collapse understood precisely what they were doing. 



For more on the subject, read EconumeroclimatologicEconolyin' and Wreckonomics.