Homo procrastinatiens

-- by Horatio Algeranon

We're self-named "Homo sapiens",

With very little proof.

And "Homo procrastinatiens"

Is closer to the truth.

Floorclosed by Nature

-- by Horatio Algeranon

Nature foreclosed

On a nearby house.

It happened

Quiet as a mouse.

The roof sprung leaks

And water came in,

But no one noticed

'Cuz no one's been

Living there

For years and years.

No one around

So no one hears.

The weeds have grown

Up through the deck,

Which rots and slopes

But what the heck?

No one sits

On summer nights

Watching stars

Or fire-fly lights.

The windows all

Are boarded tight.

Vandals came

In dead of night,

Shattered them

With many a stone --

Probably from 

The bushes thrown.

The House returned

To Nature's bank

The debt repaid

When floorboards sank.

Nature has a way of collecting on the debts owed her. We might put off payment on such debts for a while, but Nature will eventually come knocking. 

Future generations are going to have to pay off a very large "climate change debt."  Many will pay with their very lives.  But we will all be gone by then, so "what the heck?" Right? 

Halfway to the Nuthouse

-- by Horatio Algeranon

He's lost touch with reality

There's not much more to say

I think he's nuts, but as for me

I'll meet him half the way.

Who is nuttier? The one who denies reality? Or the one who tries to reach a "compromise" with the one who denies reality?

Polar Thermites

-- by Horatio Algeranon

A thermite mound 

Is at the poles

The sea-ice found

Is full of holes

A fragile maze

From thermal mites

On summer days

And summer nights

Inspired by a great termite analogy by Rob Honeycutt at Tamino's:

You could almost think of the sea ice as being like a house being eaten away by termites. Year after year pieces of the house are falling off but then one day a big storm blows through and takes down half the building. It’s still the termites causing the damage, the storm merely hastened the collapse. To say the storm caused the collapse means you’re just avoiding the obviousness of the termite problem.

Expert Opinion

-- by Horatio Algeranon

A cardiac specialist

Says "It's your heart"

A neurologist

Says "It's Your brain"

A gastric expert

Says "It's your fart"

A psychiatrist

Says "You're insane"

A physicist

Says "It's cosmic rays"

An engineer

Says "It's no bother"

A solar expert

Says "Solar phase"

A weatherman 

Says "It's just weather".

Everyone has an expert opinion, especially about climate change. For more on this subject, read I have a theory and it is mine

Whether Weather

-- by Horatio Algeranon

It's not

Whether weather

Is or is not

But, whether weather

Is cold or is hot

Give-ice Shelter

-- Horatio Algeranon and the Rolling Icebergs 

(after The Rolling Stones' "Gimme Shelter", of course --Mick Jagger, Keith Richards)

Oh, the warm is threat'ning
The summer ice today
If it don't get some shelter
Oh yeah, it's gonna melt away

Open, arctic, it's just a melt away
It's just a melt away
Open, arctic, it's just a melt away
It's just a melt away

Ooh, see the wind is sweepin'
Our remnant ice today
Churns like a Waring blender
Ice-breaker lost its way

Open, water, it's just a melt away
It's just a melt away
Open, water, it's just a melt away
It's just a melt away

Cape, Farewell!
It's just a melt away
It's just a melt away

Cape, Farewell!
It's just a melt away
It's just a melt away

Cape, Farewell!
It's just a melt away
It's just a melt away

The floods is threat'ning
The very coast today
Give ice, give ice shelter
Or it's gonna melt away

Open, arctic, it's just a melt away
It's just a melt away
It's just a melt away
It's just a melt away
It's just a melt away

I tell you death, sea-ice, it's just a kiss away
It's just a kiss away
It's just a kiss away
It's just a kiss away
It's just a kiss away
Kiss away, kiss away

Watts Falls to Pieces

– Horatio’s perversification of “I fall to Pieces” (Patsy Cline)

Watts falls to pieces,

Each time ice dips low again.

Watts falls to pieces.

How can this not mean the end?

He wants us to act like he’s never wrong

He wants us to forget, pretend he’s ne’r upset

And he’s tried and he’s tried, but he lost the bet.

Summer goes by and Watts falls to pieces.

Watts falls to pieces,

Each time someone blogs his name.

Watts falls to pieces.

Tamino only adds to the flame

He tries hard to find something else to graph

Something that’ll boost hits too, like photos used to do.

But each time he comes out with something new,

Summer goes by and Watts fall to pieces.

Nothing is Real

-- by Horatio Algeranon

Nothing is Real,

Especially in math,

Where nought is the kernel

Of every graph.

Ridicruel?

-- by Horatio Algeranon

It's not polite to ridicule

When nonsense rears it's head.

Much better, as a general rule,

To just make fun instead.

Anthony's Ice

– by Horatio Algeranon 

Anthony’s Ice, 

Like Schroedinger’s Cat,

Simultaneously “dead” and “alive”.

In a state of “Watterecovery”,

Unwatched,  it will survive.

Inspired by a great image by "Sou".

For those who are not familiar with "Schroedinger's Cat, Wikipedia explains it here. 

The basic idea is that as long as you don't observe the cat, it is both dead and alive at the same time. Anthony Watts (WUWT) seems to have a similar view of arctic sea ice, which somehow is simultaneously in a state of loss and recovery (or as Horatio calls it, "Watterecovery").

Follow the Random Brick Road

– by Horatio Algeranon

The road to Never Never Land

Is paved with random bricks --

And Horatio’s poems got nothin’

On the bricks within this mix.

For more on this topic, read Unreality and Feynman's Law.

Cracked Pots

-- by Horatio Algeranon

Some cracked pots

Are not renewable

Tieable, tapeable

Or even glueable.

Warming and the Damage Done

– Horatio Algeranon's perversification of “Needle and the Damage Done” (by Neil Young)

A heat-wave knockin’
On a Russian door
With global warming
We will have much more
Ooh, ooh, the damage done.

Storm hit the city and
It caused a flood
By global warming
buried in the mud
Gone, gone, the damage done.

I sing the song
because I love the mean
I know that some
of you think warming's keen
Emissions-cuts
To keep from burning up.

I’ve seen the warming
and the damage done
A little part of it in every storm
But every heat-wave’s
like a searing sun.


Some folks have recently claimed that NASA climate scientist James Hansen has been "exaggerating" the impacts of global warming on extreme weather events.  Some have even called his statistics and conclusions "deceptive" (specifically with regard to Hansen's paper "Perception of Climate Change"  published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences).

But as Tamino shows in Risk, Hansen's analysis is actually realistic -- certainly far more realistic than the uninformed "analysis" given by his critics.

The impacts of global warming are much larger than one might expect based on what Horatio will call the "naive argument" that "global warming has only added an extra 1 degree (C) or so to an extreme heat wave (5C) like Russia experienced and therefore, it's added impact was relatively minor." 

But as Tamino points out, there are two fatal flaws with the naive approach and the proper way to treat this issue is from the standpoint of collective damages and "risk" (as the insurance industry would do). 

First, as Hansen has showed,  the "frequency" (or prevalence)  of extreme events has gone up by a large factor (10 or more) even with the relatively small increase in the mean temperature due to global warming to date. The naive approach completely ignores this fact. Even if the severity of extreme events did not increase at all due to global warming (the opposite of what is actually true), the simple fact that their number increases means that the overall "damages" (from all events taken collectively) get multiplied.

Second, the damages caused by an extreme weather event like a heat wave or hurricane increase quickly (faster than linearly) with each additional degree of warming. So when the temperature of a heat wave goes up from 4C to 5C due to global warming, the associated damage does not simply increase by 25% (ie, by a factor of 1.25),  as one might expect based on the naive argument.  It goes up significantly more than that.

What this means is that global warming causes overall damages from all extreme weather-related events (taken together) to go up much more than one would expect from the "naive" argument. The insurance industry understands this very well, which is why they are taking climate change very seriously (and setting their rates accordingly).

Put simply, if we continue on our current course of pumping heat-absorbing carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, we are asking for trouble. And make no mistake, we will get what we ask for -- and it won't be like Christmas.

The Normal and the Deviant

– by Horatio Algeranon

The average is a standard

Which normally won’t deceive,

But "radical" deviations

We simply can't believe.

If you believe that, read Normal Variation and Climate of Extremes.

Polariced Climate

-- by Horatio Algeranon

The current climate

Is polariced

Superfiscal

Anonymiced

The only hope

For World and Nation:
To focus on

Depolarication.

Mac and Denyann

-- Horatio Algeranon's perversification of "Jack and Diane" (John Mellencamp)

Little ditty about Mac and Deny-ann
Two contrarian kids sowin' doubt in the Heartland
Macky's gonna be a climate audit pro
Denyann denybutante blogseat of her own show

Playin' up chili temps inside the winter freeze
Denyann doin' a vict'ry lap, missin' the forest for the trees
Macky say, "Hey Denyann let's send off an-FOI or maybe three
Tee off them climate crooks, make 'em do what we please"
And say a

Oh yeah warming goes on
Long after the thrill of denyin' is gone
Say, Oh yeah warming goes on
Long after the thrill of denyin' is gone, now crock on

Macky sits back reflects his thoughts for the moment
Scratches his head and does his least global mean
"Well you know Denyann, we oughtta run off to the AGU"
Denyann says "Macky, you ain't missin' nothin'"
Macky say a

Oh yeah warming goes on
Long after the thrill of denyin' is gone
Say, Oh yeah warming goes on
Long after the thrill of denyin' is gone

So let it crock
Let it troll
Let the Hockey Team come down
And save my soul
Hold on to short trends as long as you can
Changes come around real soon
Make it warming again

Oh yeah warming goes on
Long after the thrill of denyin' is gone
Say, Oh yeah warming goes on
Long after the thrill of denyin' is gone

Little ditty about Mac and Deny-ann
Two contrarian kids sowin' doubt in the Heartland

Climate of Extremes

-- by Horatio Algeranon

The perfect storm is brewing 

It can not be denied.

The climate norm's ungluing

We can not run or hide.

The temperatures are rising

A shifting of the means.

With scientists surmising

An increase of extremes.

Imagine

(This will undoubtedly seem like blasphemy to some. Horatio can only offer his sincere apologies to John Lennon, RIP)

Imagine there's no warming
It's easy if you try
No hell in summer
Above us cloudy sky
Imagine all the people
Living for today...

Imagine there's no greenhouse
It isn't hard to do
Nothing to cut or change for
And no real CO2
Imagine all the people
Emitting carb'n in peace...

You may say I'm a denier
But I'm not the only one
I hope someday you'll join us
And the world will emit as one

Imagine no ice melting
I wonder if you can
No need for Cryosphere or JAXA
The brotherhood of Mann
Imagine all the people
Burning all the oil...

You may say I'm a denier
But I'm not the only one
I hope someday you'll join us
And the world will emit as one

Yesterday

 -- Horatio Algeranon's ruination of yet another beautiful song (sorry John and Paul)

Yesterday, all those heat-waves seemed so far away
Now it looks as though they’re here to stay
Oh, I believe in yesterday.

Suddenly, I see twice the rain I used to see,
There’s a storm-cloud hanging over me.
Oh, climate change came suddenly.

Why ice had to go I don’t know it wouldn’t stay.
I sang recovery’s song, now I long for yesterday.

Yesterday, denial was such an easy game to play.
Now I need a place to hide away.
Oh, I believe in yesterday.

Ice Falls to Pieces

-- Horatio Algeranon's diversification of Pattsy Cline

Ice falls to pieces,

Each time it sees spring again.

Ice falls to pieces.

How can it not mean the end?

You want me to act like it's never slush

You want me to forget, pretend it's never wet

And I've tried and I've tried, but I haven't yet.

Summer goes by and ice falls to pieces.

Ice falls to pieces,

Each time warm currents hit the Ross.

Ice falls to pieces.

Time only adds to the loss.

You tell me to find something else to graph,

Something that'll increase too, the way ice used to do.

But each time I do a graph of something new,

Summer goes by and ice falls to pieces.

Summer goes by and ice falls to pieces.

Click here to listen to Horatio sing Pattsy Cline (or try, anyway)

The Wreck of the Blog with Burn-barrels

– Horatio Algeranon’s parody of “The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald” (Gordon Lightfoot)

The legend lives on from the listserv on down
Of the big net they call ‘intertubey’
The web, it is famed, never forgets the names
When the apples of bloggers turn wormy
With a load of denier lore twenty-six thousand Gigs more
Than the Burn-barrel server had empty.
That “Best Science Blog” was about to get flogged
When the claims of “no warming” came early.


The blog was the pride of the denialist side
Coming back with some photos from stations
As denialist blogs go, it was louder than most
With its posters and weatherman unreasoned
Concluding some terms with a couple of firms
When they left fully loaded for Heartland
And later that night when the Mac phone rang
Could it be TOB they’d been missin’?


The cache on the web made a tattle-tale sound
As a comment-wave broke over the railing
And every man knew, as the weatherman did too,
T’was the wrath of good science they're feelin'
The stats came late and the vacation had to wait
When the tales of Rich Muller came slashin’.
When afternoon came it was freezin’ rain
In the face of a hurricane BEST wind.


When suppertime came, the Big Mac came online sayin’
“Tony, I didn’t even read ya.”
At seven P.M. the main thesis caved in, he said
“Tony, it’s been good t’know ya”
The weatherman blogged in he had science comin’ in
And the blog and its crew were in peril
And later that night when his lights went outta sight
Came the wreck of the Blog with Burn-barrels.


Does anyone know where the love of blog goes
When denial turns the public to sour?
The searchers all say they’d have made the blog pay
If they’d put climate science behind her.
They might have split up or they might have capsized;
May have broke deep and took water.
And all that remains is the feces and the names
Of the weatherman and posters and commenters.


Global warming rolls, and arctic ice melts
In the rooms of Earth’s ice-water mansions.
Fossil fuel steams like a young man’s dreams;
With SUV’s and jetskies for sportsmen.
And futher above, the earth’s troposphere
Takes in what humanity can send her,
And the denier blogs go as the public all know
With the tales of the scientists remembered.


On a dusty old blog on the internet they prayed,
In the Global Warming Deniers' Cathedral.
The Church bell chimed till it rang 1 million times
For each post on the Blog with Burn-barrels
The legend lives on from the listserv on down
Of the big net they call ‘intertubey’
The web, it is famed, never forgets the names
When the apples of bloggers turn wormy.






Click here to listen to Horatio sing (or not)

The RMS Wattsitanic

-- by Horatio Algeranon

"Half of US

Warming's fake

An artifact

Make no mistake"

Now you see it 

Now you don't

The ship was there

And now it's not

The stern is up

The game is changed

Wattsitanic deck chairs 

Re-arranged.

For more on the continuing saga of our iconoclastaways, read Gomer's Pile