Carbon Alarm

-- by Horatio Algeranon


The models got it wrong --
Wrong in the wrong direction.
What should have taken long
Is here for our inspection. 

The sea ice disappears
Much faster than was thought.
The projected "50 years"
Was wrong, because it's hot. 

The seas are rising fast
And quicker than predicted
Based upon the past
When ice-melt was restricted.

We know the earth is warming
We do not need a model
The carbon is alarming
There's no more time to dawdle.

The Carburniferous Period

-- by Horatio Algeranon

Humans ruled

And fossils fueled

During the Carburniferous.

Climate warmed

And weather stormed

But we could not deliver us.  

Fossils returned

For no one learned

And time will not forgive for us.

Carbon Man

-- Horatio Algeranon's rendering of the Renaissance song "Midas Man" 
(by Betty Thatcher and Michael Dunford)

Oil - said the man to the many
I want oil and I'll make it glow
I will count my worth in oil - wealth untold
I'll sell my coal - Carbon man

Sold - said the man to the many
Burn for me, it'll only warm your clime
I will count my barrels out, there's no doubt
I'll sell my coal - Carbon man - Carbon man

Chorus:

I'll take from the wells and I'll burn up a head
I'll sneak up behind and I'll steal
I'll burn all that you have
And then all that you've concealed
I'll burn anything I can get - I'll flood you
I'll mud you and I'll make you sweat
Nothing is worth nothing unless it's
Burned by Carbon man

Oil - said the man to the many
Barrels of oil are all I want for you
Warming clime for later days the only price
To burn my coal - Carbon man - Carbon man

Symptgun

-- by Horatio Algeranon

Three hundred million guns

The symptoms of disease

Violent "solutions"

To society's unease

My Favorite Things

– Horatio Algeranon's rendition of the Rodgers and Hammerstein song (from "The Sound of Music)

Curry and Roses and high diving horses
Mything with Moncktons, divining with dowsers
Skeptics with foolishness hung with their strings
These are a few of my favorite things

“Blog Science” phonies and short trend balonies
Ding dongs and ding bats and blogging at Tony's
Theories that fly with the moon on their wings
These are a few of my favorite things

Graphs from fake skeptics with BS statistics
Fact-fakes that stray like erratic ballistics
Sea-ice "recoveries" that melt into springs
These are a few of my favorite things

When the blog bites
When “tee hee” stings
When I’m feeling sad
I simply remember my favorite things
And then I don’t feel so bad


If you are wondering about the reference to "diving horses" above, read "Morner-ing has broken." Morner is also apparently a fan of "dowsing" (also known as "witching"), not incidentally, which may partly explain his fascination with horse-diving.

And If you are wondering about the "Curry and Roses" part, read "The Rose".

Morner-ing has broken

Willie soon sink?

– Horatio Algeranon’s rending of the lovely hym made famous by Cat Stevens

Morner-ing has broken, like the first Morner-ing.
Willie Soon has spoken, like his first sneers.
Praise for horse-diving, praise for the Morner-ing,
Praise for them springing high from the piers.

Sweet the Times’ new fall, Soon-light from heaven.
Like the first manure-fall, on the first grass.
Praise for the sweetness of the wet garden,
Sprung in completeness where horse hooves pass.

Mine is the Soon-light, mine is the Morner-ing.
Bjorn of the one light Heartland saw play.
Praise mathturbation, praise every Morner-ing;
The Lord’s* recreation of the new day.

Morner-ing has broken, like the first Morner-ing.
Willie-Soon has spoken, like his first sneers.
Praise for horse-diving, praise for the Morner-ing,
Praise for them springing fresh from the piers.



*Lord Monckton, who else? (read "The House of Lords Diner")


If you are wondering about the image and reference to "horse diving" above, believe it or not, some (Willie Soon and Nils-Axel Morner)  have actually implied that rising sea level at certain times was due to horse diving at "Steel Pier" in Antlantic City, New Jersey. 

"Goofy" does not even begin to describe this stuff.

Willie Soon is actually a Harvard astrophysicist (also in the "believe it or not" category), who has previously produced utter nonsense on climate science with fellow astrophysicist Sally Baliunas. A PhD in astrophysics does not mean one is an expert on climate science ( to understate in the extreme.)

Selective Morality

-- by Horatio Algeranon

Morality is selective

Ineluctably elective

Following a directive

To realize an objective

Glenn Greenwald provides some reasons for why that might be in Newtown kids v Yemenis and Pakistanis: what explains the disparate reactions?

Taps

-- by Horatio Algeranon

Troubled taps
And double-taps
Humanity gaps
And children traps
The symptoms of
A moral lapse.

The Denientologists

-- by Horatio Algeranon

A Denientologist, that is me

Of the Church of Denientology.

I practice the Science of Deniance,

With a Notell Prize for shutting eyes.

Youth Culture?

-- by Horatio Algeranon

We're obsessed with youth

But do we care?

We sacrifice 

Them everywhere

At home

In war

With drone

And gore.

We ought not bear this 
Any more.

Inspired by Our Moloch, by Gary Wills.

As Lucinda Marshall put it in A Culture That Condones The Killing Of Children And Teaches Children To Kill

Sandy Hook did not happen because of a lone, disturbed young man and it is not an isolated incident. It is an epidemic and we are all to blame. And today (and tomorrow and every day after that) is the time to confront this self-inflicted tragedy.

The US Constitution

-- by Horatio Algeranon

The "right to bear arms"?

Or the "rite to bare harms"?

Constitution?

Or constitution?

Freedom to hate?

-- by Horatio Algeranon

We hate us for our freedoms
We hate us for our rights
We hate us for our blacks
We hate us for our whites

We hate us for our peaceniks
We hate us for our OWS
We hate us for our politics
We hate us for our NOW's

We hate us for our Catholics
We hate us for our Jews
We hate us for our Protestants
And for our Muslims too.

We hate us for our wealth
We hate us for our houses
We hate us for our health
And even for our spouses

We hate us for our feminists
We hate us for our gays
We hate us for our socialists
For all our different ways

We hate us for our rich
We hate us for our poor 
We even hate our tolerance
Is this what we are for?

Not Even Wrong

-- by Horatio Algeranon

It's "Not even wrong"

Mr. Pauli said

"Your zombie theory

Is not even dead."

It isn't science

If it can't be tested.

Pure faith reliance

Can not be arrested. 

After physicist Wolfgang Pauli's famous comment about a particular idea: "Not only is it not right, it's not even wrong!"

Remember all the Children

-- by Horatio Algeranon

Let us remember all the children
Everywhere around the world
Remember those who died in Newtown
Before their little lives unfurled

Remember those who died from hunger
Remember those who have no homes
Remember the children torn asunder
Remember those who died from drones

Remember those who are mistreated
Remember those who still survive
Remember those who feel defeated
Remember so that they may thrive  


Inspired by "Remember All the Children, Mr. President"
by Bill Quigley (Law professor at Loyola University New Orleans.)

Putting the neutrino before the photon

-- by Horatio Algeranon

Faster than light

Neutrinos might

Result from wormholes

Yes, that's right.

Then again, they might not, especially if they are not real.

In science, it is usually best to confirm that an effect is real (not just due to noise and/or experimental error ) before one proposes elaborate "explanations" as some did for the "Superluminal Neutrinos" and "Cold Fusion"  (both due to experimental error) and others are now doing for the so-called "flat global temperatures" over the past decade, which are very consistent with the preceding long term trend, as Tamino shows with his most excellent animated graph:

The solid blue line is the long term trend from 1975 through 2000 -- extended with the center red line. The upper and lower dotted lines "bracket" the "expected deviations" of temperatures about that trend (due to  "weather noise" like El Nino, La Nina and volcanic eruptions). 

As you can see,  recent global temperature (anomalies) are well within those brackets. In other words, there is really no evidence that recent temperatures have been "flat" (or even that the rate of warming has "slowed") and thus no reason to propose "explanations" for the latter.

Where have all the children gone?

-- Horatio Algeranon's humble addition to the Pete Seeger song: 
"Where have all the flowers gone?"

Where have all the children gone?
Long time passing
Where have all the children gone?
Long time ago
Where have all the children gone?
Gone to graveyards every one
When will we ever learn?
When will we ever learn?

Where have all the parents gone?
Long time passing
Where have all the parents gone?
Long time ago
Where have all the parents gone?
Broken by mourning every one
When will we ever learn?
When will we ever learn?

Where have all the families gone?
Long time passing
Where have all the families gone?
Long time ago
Where have all the families gone?
Gone from violence every one
When will we ever learn?
When will we ever learn?

Mannstream Science

-- by Horatio Algeranon

Climate science rests 

On a single Mann

Glorified

Throughout the Land

If he shrugs

The science shakes

Break his stick

And the science breaks.

Or, many pseudo-skeptics seem to believe, at any rate.

Untainted by Physics

-- by Horatio Algeranon

Scientists abide by physics

Aware of its constraint.

Economists abide by biztricks

Which physics doesn't taint.

It's not just that individual economists have a poor understanding of physics (which many of them do, as exemplified by Superfreakonomics author Steve Levitt), but, even more critically, that mainstream economics itself is based on the idea of  "eternal growth", which  is a physical impossibility.

There are economists who are notable exceptions  -- Herman Daly (see Beyond Growth: The Economics of Sustainable Development), Manfred Max-Neef (author of "Outside Looking In: Experiences in Barefoot Economics") , E.F. Schumacher (author of "Small is Beautiful") and a few others -- but they are definitely in the minority.

For another ditty on the same subject, read Wreckonomics.

Carbon Nation

-- by Horatio Algeranon

Carbonated cars

Carbonated drinks

Carbonated bars

Carbonated rinks

Carbonated war

Carbonated peace

Carbonated Gore

Carbonated knees

Carbonated house

Carbonated plane

Carbonated spouse

Carbonated Lane

Carbonated this

Carbonated that

Carbonated dog

Carbonated cat

Our Carbon Nation

Is carbonated

By carbon 
Appetites unsated

Twitspeak

-- by Horatio Algeranon

It's only Twitter

Don't blame me

If I say "yes"

It means "no," see? 

If I say "black"

It really means "white"

If I say "day"

It actually means "night"

If I say 

"This tweet's sorely needed"

It simply means

I shouldn't have tweeted.

Pass the Carbon

-- by Horatio Algeranon

Global temperatures on increase

"Pass the carbon, if you please"

Sea-ice melting in arctic seas

"Pass the carbon, if you please"

Hurricane floods in large cities

"Pass the carbon, if you please"

Droughts with farmers on their knees

"Pass the carbon, if you please"

Wildfires raging through the trees

"Pass the carbon, if you please"

Melting ice-sheets and rising seas

"Pass the carbon, if you please"

No Kyotos or carbon fees

"Pass the carbon, if you please"

Exxon-Mobil to appease

"Pass the carbon, if you please"

Just ignore our children's pleas

"Pass the carbon, if you please"

Satisfy our "me-me-me's"

"Pass the carbon, if you please"

Pass the carbon to the breeze

"Pass the carbon, if you please"

Addicted to Oil

-- Horatio Algeranon's parody of "Addicted to Love" (Robert Palmer)

Your lights are on, but you're not home
Your mind is not your own
Your pipes froze, your furnace quit
Another gallon, to restart it

You can't walk, a single mile
There's no doubt, you're in denial
You can't reduce, your driving speed
Another gallon, is all you need

Whoa, you like to think that you're immune to the spoil, oh yeah
It's closer to the truth to say you don't like to toil
You know you're gonna have to face it, you're addicted to oil

You see the signs, but you can't read
The sea-ice melts, at greater speed
The carbon heats, in doubling time
Another gallon, it is a crime

One track mind
You can't be saved
Oilblivion is all you crave
If there's some left for you
You don't mind if you do

Whoa, you like to think that you're immune to the spoil, oh yeah
It's closer to the truth to say you don't like to toil
You know you're gonna have to face it, you're addicted to oil

Might as well face it, you're addicted to oil
Might as well face it, you're addicted to oil
Might as well face it, you're addicted to oil
Might as well face it, you're addicted to oil
Might as well face it, you're addicted to oil
[repeat until you face it]

Don't blame me

-- by Horatio Algeranon

I'm not to blame

For the fire's flame

I just provided fuel

The guy who lit

Is the one to git

I only was the mule.

IPCC FALSIFIED!!!

-- by Horatio Algeranon

The IPCC has been FALSIFIED

This really can not be denied

They predicted "2" and it turned out "3"

So they were wrong most certainly.

Click here to read "Sea Level Rise: Faster than Projected".

Prediction is easy

-- by Horatio Algeranon

It's hard to remember,

Especially the past.

"Who said what?"

And "First? or Last?"

Easy to predict

How future occurs

When everything happens

In the Multiverse

"The multiverse (or meta-universe) is the hypothetical set of multiple possible universes (including the historical universe we consistently experience) that together comprise everything that exists and can exist" -- from Wikipedia: Multiverse

Mind your business

-- by Horatio Algeranon

The corporation is a mask

Which people hide behind.

So when they do the dirty task

No one seems to mind. 

Jousting with Jesters

-- by Horatio Algeranon 

(with inspiration from Jim Hansen)

Jousting with jesters
Is never wise
The jester pesters
And never dies.

“The [global warming] contrarians will be remembered as court jesters. There is no point to joust with court jesters. They will always be present,” -- NASA climate scientist James Hansen

Probably Wrong

-- by Horatio Algeranon

Bayesians are frequently wrong

When priors are unreasonably strong.

Frequentists are oft unfazed 

When models are wrongly bayesed.

Shareholder Values

-- by Horatio Algeranon

"Maximize shareholder value"

Is really all we do,

But let me simply tell you

We're caring and ethical too.

Our shareholders care about cash,

With business ethics to prove it.

They're not about to slash

The profits to re-move soot. 

Corporeal Emissions

-- by Horatio Algeranon

Corporations are persons too

They gotta grow bigger

They really do

They'll simply die,

And suffer too,

If they cease
Emitting CO2.

Internet Lost?

-- by Horatio Algeranon

"We've lost the internet"

He said with much regret

"Denier lies and Exxon ties"

"Are trying to upset"

Hum(mer)an Development

– by Horatio Algeranon

From womb to grave

Development is slave

To fossil fuel,

Which Big Oil gave

Doha Doha

-- Horatio's rendition of "Donna Donna", by Joan Baez

On a waggUN bound for market
There`s a calf with a mournful eye
High above him there`s a vulture,
circling slowly in the sky.
How the CEO's are laughing, 
they laugh with all their might.
Laugh and laugh the whole day through, 
and half the summer`s night.
Doha, Doha, Doha, Doha; Doha, Doha, Doha, Do.
Doha, Doha, Doha, Doha; Doha, Doha, Doha, Die.
"Stop complaining!“ said the envoy,
Who told you a calf to be ?
Why don`t you have wings to fly with,
like vultures so proud and free?“ (Chorus)
Calves are easily bound and slaughtered,
never knowing the reason why.
But who ever feeds on carbon,
like the vulture has learned to fly. (Chorus)

The Doha side-step

-- by Horatio Algeranon

Exxon hates your children

But Exxon's not alone.

Emissions cuts foot-draggers

Are throwing them a bone.

“People are dying because of climate change. People are losing their homes, their livelihoods, their source of food. It is saddening to see rich country negotiators actively blocking progress in order to maintain the profits of their coal, oil and forestry industries,” -- Kumi Naidoo, Greenpeace International Director

Dimentianal Analysis

-- by Horatio Algeranon

Fact-free fizzics

Is truly fascinating,

Strings and things

Forever vacillating.

"Zero sigma"

Is the norm,

With no experiments

To perform.

Climate physics

Is dimentianally lacking,

To merit serious

Fizzicist backing.

Add dimentia

Here and there

And climate science

Will better fare.

Concentration of Absurdity

-- by Horatio Algeranon

"Conservation of energy"

To nothing much amounts.

"Concentration of absurdity"
Is really all that counts.

...if one believes the patently absurd claims that some folks make, which completely ignore  physical laws like "conservation of energy":  

"Global temperature is simply on a 'random walk' ",  

"The atmospheric greenhouse effect is an impossibility", 

 "The 'average global temperature' is meaningless", etc.

Titanic Change

-- by Horatio Algeranon

The more things change

The more they stay the same

"Deckchair Rearrange"

Is what they call the game

The Carbon Tsunami

-- by Horatio Algeranon

The carbon tsunami

Is un-origami

Unfolding, it seems

With weather extremes

“We have a climate cliff. ... We’re facing a carbon tsunami, actually, where huge amounts of carbon are now being emitted at a faster rate than ever. And it’s that carbon tsunami that’s likely to overwhelm the planet with warming, sea-level rise and acidifying the oceans." -- Climate scientist Bill Hare, one of the lead authors of a new World Bank report, “Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4 Degree C Warmer World Must Be Avoided (from "A Carbon Tsunami in Doha" by Amy Goodman)

Ignorance is Bliss

-- by Horatio Algeranon

My ignorance is ascendant

My analysis, independent

Of reality itself,

Which really is a help.

The above was inspired by an actual comment (believe it or not) by one Matt Asher, "bolstering" his claim of "The surprisingly weak case for global warming": 

“The advantage of my ignorance of the science is that I can offer an independent analysis of the data." 

(Reality-) Independent indeed.

Change we can believe in

 -- by Horatio Algeranon

Better than Romney

Promised to be

Better than nothing

Now, you see?

Outta sight, man

-- by Horatio Algeranon

"Congratulations all around

We've really broken virgin ground

Applying dispersant at the source

Lessened oil's deadly force"

Or so claimed EPA officials

Who stamped their bona fide initials

Upon the BP spill reports

To counter critical retorts.

But recent study data releases

Reveal toxicity increases

By 50 times on plankton creatures 

Which form the base of food web features

But let us not belabor fact

'Bout oil, Corexit, this and that

It doesn't matter what is true

If you can't see it, that'll do.

Study: Dispersant Made Oil 50 Times More Toxic To Gulf Of Mexico Microorganisms (Bob Berwyn, Summit County Citizens Voice)

“Dispersants are preapproved to help clean up oil spills and are widely used during disasters,” said UAA’s Roberto-Rico Martinez, who led the study. “But we have a poor understanding of their toxicity. Our study indicates the increase in toxicity may have been greatly underestimated following the Macondo well explosion.”

MAD

*Mutual Assured Destruction*

-- by Horatio Algeranon

Pershing is a missile

Targeting emissions cuts

Making agreements fizzle

And driving Tuvalu nuts.

"Doha: Sea levels to rise by more than 1m by 2100" (by Louise Gray, The Telegraph)

Sea levels are rising 60 per cent faster than the United Nations originally predicted, according to a new study, putting small island states and coastal cities at risk.

The findings come as almost 200 countries gather in Doha, Qatar for the latest UN meeting on climate change. Already poorer nations exposed to sea level rise are complaining that the negotiations are moving too slowly to help stop small islands being lost forever.

A 1m rise in sea levels by 2100 would wash away much of small island states like Tuvalu and the Maldives. Delta regions like Bangladesh, where millions of people live, will be flooded and coastal cities like New York will have to build up defences.

Kumi Naidoo of Greenpeace International made the comment that 

“Todd Stern and Jonathan Pershing [U.S. negotiators] have come to Doha with their needle stuck in the groove of obstructing the U.N. process, an art they have perfected. It is disrespectful of President Obama to inflict on us two negative negotiators who act as if the comments he made after his election were never made. He should either pick up the phone and tell his delegates to follow his lead or alternatively call them back to Washington.” 

Watch Amy Goodman Questions Top U.S. Negotiator on Alleged Obstruction of U.N. Climate Talks in Doha

The Skeptic Paradox

-- by Horatio Algeranon

The pseudo-skeptic brain:

A member of the set

Of skeptics that don't constrain

Themselves by reality's net