Thursday, January 31, 2013

Misses Doubtfire


-- by Horatio Algeranon

Misses Doubtfire
Beats his breast
Doubtses fire
Fox's best



Unfortunately, there seem to be more than a few "Misses Doubtfire's" about sewing doubt that climate change has any significant impact on wildfires (despite the evidence to the contrary).

To see how Misses Doubtfire "doubtses" fire, watch Mrs. Doubtfire movie trailer at 1:35.


Matter 'n a Hatter


-- by Horatio Algeranon


If Keystone "doesn't matter"
We're madder than a Hatter
And Cheshire cat will grin
If Keystone means nothin'


Some believe that it "doesn't matter" whether President Obama approves the Keystone pipeline or not because "the tar-sands oil will somehow find a way to market, pipeline or no pipeline."

Horatio would call this "madder than a hatter."

But if it is actually true that "it doesn't matter", we are all "madder than a hatter" because that would effectively signify that we have consciously chosen to open the Gates of Oil -- and the Cheshire cat will be grinning from ear to ear. Welcome to Blunderland.

For another ditty on the same theme, read Flat as a Hatter

Wednesday, January 30, 2013

A (pipe)line in the (tar)sand


– by Horatio Algeranon

Keystone is 
A line in the tar sands
That America 
Should not traverse.

Vetoin’ is 
A line of adjoined hands
That Obama 
Should not disperse






Little Willy


-- Horatio's parody of "Little Willy" (by The Sweet)


Shell's side , Watts' side 
Little Willy, Willy wears the crown, he's the king around town 
Denying, defying 
Willy drives them silly with his tar-sands slurry shuffle down 
Way past warm, and feeling so clever 
'cause with little Willy round they can last forever 
Boil down, oil down, spoil town now

'Cause little Willy, Willy won't know warm 
But you can't bring Willy round, Willy won't know 
Try tellin' everybody but, oh no 
Little Willy, Willy won't - know warm 

Oil town, spoil town 
Little Willy, Willy drives them wild with his run-around style 
Inside, outside 
Willy sends them silly with his tar-sands slurry shuffle smile
Tamino done chase Willy down through the hall 
But laugh, Willy laugh, he don't care at all 
Boil down, oil down, spoil town now 

'Cause little Willy, Willy won't know warm 
But you can't bring Willy round, Willy won't know 
Try tellin' everybody but, oh no 
Little Willy, Willy won't - know warm

Little Willy, Willy won't 
Willy won't, Willy won't 
Little Willy, Willy won't 
Willy won't, Willy won't 
Little Willy, Willy won't 
Willy won't, Willy won't 
Little Willy, Willy won't 
Willy won't, Willy won't 

Little Willy, Willy won't know warm 
But you can't bring Willy round, Willy won't know 
Try tellin' everybody but, oh no 
Little Willy, Willy won't - know warm 

Little Willy, Willy won't know warm 
But you can't bring Willy round, Willy won't know 
Try tellin' everybody but, oh no 
Little Willy, Willy won't - know warm


Crock-o-denial Blog

-- Horatio Algeranon's parody of Crocodile Rock (sorry Elton)

I remember when the blog was young, me and Tony had so much fun 
Scolding Manns and sliming Jones 
Had a No-warm Theory* and a blog of my own 
But the biggest kick I ever got was doing a thing called the Crock-o-denial Blog
While the other kids were bloggin' ‘round the clock, we were denyin' and lyin' on the Crock-o-denial Blog
Well, Crock-o-denial Blogging is really fogging when the heat just can't keep still 
I never knew me a better time and I guess I never will 
Oh lawdy mama, those Denyday heights when Tony snitched addresses right and the Crock-o-denial Bloggin' was out of sight 

But the years went by and the Blog just died 
Tony went and left us with some American Pi** 
Long nights crying by the Denial Machine 
Dreaming of the Theory and my cold new schemes 
But they'll never kill the thrills we got lyin'  it up at the Crock-o-denial Blog 
Denying facts as the weeks went past 
We really thought the Crock-o-denial Blog would last 
Well, Crock-o-denial Blogging is really fogging when the heat just can't keep still 
I never knew me a better time and I guess I never will 
Oh lawdy mama, those Denyday heights when Tony snitched addresses right and the Crock-o-denial Bloggin' was out of sight 

I remember when crock was young, me and Tony had so much fun 
Scolding Manns and sliming Jones 
Had a No-warm Theory and a blog of my own 
But the biggest kick I ever got was doing a thing called the Crock-o-denial Blog
While the other kids were bloggin' ‘round The clock, we were denyin' and lyin' on the Crock-o-denial Blog
Well, Crock-o-denial Blogging is really fogging when the heat just can't keep still 
I never knew me a better time and I guess I never will 
Oh lawdy mama, those Denyday heights when Tony snitched addresses right and the Crock-o-denial Bloggin' was out of sight 


*I have a Theory and it is mine
**American Pi


Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Millions will die


-- by Horatio Algeranon

Millions will die of poverty
From climate mitigations.

Millions of birds will bite the dust
From wind farm turbinations.

Millions will die from CFLs
From mercury sensations.

Millions will buy this phony cry
From Big Oil Pub. Relations


Monday, January 28, 2013

Driving Miss Crazy

-- by Horatio Algeranon

When humanity rides
In a driverless car
On a mountain road
With a heavy load

If the car decides
To leave the tar
It can't be slowed
And can't be towed.


Saturday, January 26, 2013

Warmin' of the weather


– Horatio Algeranon’s parody of CCR’s "Proud Mary"(aka "Rollin' on the river")

Left a bad blog with a Webby
Blogging for the man every night and day
And I never lost one minute of sleeping
Worrying ’bout the way things might have been

Big trend, keep on risin'
La Niña, keep disguisin'
Warmin', Warmin', warmin' of the weather

Cleaned a lot of plates at Curry’s
Pumped a lot of swill down at Wattsupwiththat
And I never saw the right side of the science
Until I hitched a ride on a blog with real stats

Big trend, keep on risin'
El Niño, keep disguisin'
Warmin', Warmin', warmin' of the weather

Warmin', Warmin', warmin' of the weather
If it comes down to the climate
Bet you gonna find some folks who deny
They don’t even worry, if they have no savvy
Skeptics on the climate are happy to lie

Big trend, keep on risin'
La Niña, keep disguisin'
Warmin', Warmin', warmin' of the weather

Warmin', Warmin', warmin' of the weather
Warmin', Warmin', warmin' of the weather
Warmin', Warmin', warmin' of the weather

To Tell the Truth


John Kiriakou, painting by  Robert Shetterly
(Part of the "Americans Who Tell the Truth" project)

-- by Horatio Algeranon 

To tell the truth
Is never easy
But about official
Actions sleazy

Truth can even
Get you jailed
Especially when 
The truth is veiled


"Even if torture works, it cannot be tolerated – not in one case, or a thousand, or a million...If their efficacy becomes the measure of abhorrent acts, all sorts of unspeakable crimes somehow become acceptable. I may have found myself on the wrong side of the government on torture. But I'm on the right side of history ... there are things we should not do, even in the name of national security. One of them, I now firmly believe, is torture." -- John Kiriakou, CIA torture whistle-blower who was just sentenced to 30 months in prison effectively for telling the truth.


“[John Kiriakou] is an anti-torture whistleblower who spoke out against torture because he believed it violated his oath to the Constitution. He never tortured anyone, yet he is the only individual to be prosecuted in relation to the torture program of the past decade.

“The interrogators who tortured prisoners, the officials who gave the orders, the attorneys who authored the torture memos, and the CIA officers who destroyed the interrogation tapes have not been held professionally accountable." 
Please, Mr. President, do not allow your legacy to be one where only the whistleblower goes to prison.
-- from letters to President Obama from high profile Kiriakou defenders 

For more on this subject, read Bearing the Truth  and Legal Conflict.

Friday, January 25, 2013

Hello Death Valley

– Horatio’s parody of Hello Dolly (by Jerry Herman)

Hello Death-Valley
Well, Hello Death-Valley
It’d be nice to have you back where you belong
You’re bakin' like Hell, Death Valley…..I can tell, Death Valley
You’re still roastin’…you’re still toastin’…you’re still goin’ strong
I feel my head swayin’…for the cold I’m prayin’
For one of your cold records from way back when
So…golly, gee, fellas….down on bended knees, fellas
Death Valley’ll never go away….I said she’ll never go away
Death Valley’ll never go away again


While the above is an exaggeration and most places will (probably) not become like Death Valley due to climate change (assuming we stop increasing atmospheric CO2 with our emissions before things get completely out of hand, which is certainly far from assured), the general effect of climate change (a rising mean temperature) is to make the extremes (of temperature, rainfall, drought, etc) both more frequent and more extreme (as Tamino illustrates here ) And though most places will not get as hot as today's Death Valley, even in temperate regions, the extremes will be hot, perhaps very hot indeed.

The Meta Evil Watering Period

-- by Horatio Algeranon

We've had no Flood
Like Noah's here
Since ice-age times
So calm your fear

The recent floods
Don't stand alone
Like hockey sticks
They're overblown


That was tongue in cheek (of course). If you thought otherwise, you need to get a clue.

Hexponential Growth


-- by Horatio Algeranon

Economics is absurd
Mathturbation by the herd
Growth eternal 
Is infernal
Hexponential, in a word.



The assumption of endless exponential growth (of GDP,  energy use or anything physical, for that matter) leads inevitably to absurd results. (see Galactic Scale Energy). Unless we get off the speeding "growth train" -- and relatively quickly -- we are headed for a certain train wreck.

Rig or mortis?

-- by Horatio Algeranon

If you're hungry
Steal some bread
And you'll end
In jail or dead

If you're greedy
Rig your banks
And you'll get
A million thanks



According to the Wall Street Journal, Deutsche Bank made $654 million trading on LIBOR and other interest rates in 2008. And one former employee says that the bank’s executives blew off warnings about the riskiness of such trades because “the bank could influence the rates they were betting on” -- from Major Bank Made $650 Million Betting On Rigged Interest Rate (By Pat Garofalo, Jan 10, 2013)

Wednesday, January 23, 2013

The Untouchables


-- by Horatio Algeranon

Untouchable are the bankers
For fraud and other crime.
The fines are barely spankers
And no one does the time.



If there is anyone who actually still believes at this point that high level Wall Street fraud played no significant role in the activities that precipitated the recent Financial Crisis,  watch the FRONTLINE piece, The Untouchables.

For information on the ongoing impunity of the big players (in the subsequent foreclosure scandal), you may also wish to watch William Black and Matt Taibbi on Democracy Now!

You might also want to read Explosive Charge: Morgan Stanley Peddled Security Its Own Employee Called ‘Nuclear Holocaust’(ProPublica):
"We are never going to have a full understanding of what bad behavior bankers conducted in the years leading up to the financial crisis. The Justice Department and the Securities and Exchange Commission have failed to hold big wrongdoers to account....
Hundreds of pages of internal Morgan Stanley documents, released publicly last week, shed much new light on what bankers knew at the height of the housing bubble and what they did with that secret knowledge.The lawsuit concerns a $500 million collateralized debt obligation called Stack 2006-1, created in the first half of 2006. Collections of mortgage-backed securities, C.D.O.'s were at the heart of the financial crisis.But the documents suggest a pattern of behavior larger than this one deal: People across the bank understood that the American housing market was in trouble. They took advantage of that knowledge to create and then bet against securities and then also to unload garbage investments on unsuspecting buyers." -- Jesse Eisinger (ProPublica)

And the NY Times Editorial Too Big To Indict:

"It is a dark day for the rule of law. Federal and state authorities have chosen not to indict HSBC, the London-based bank, on charges of vast and prolonged money laundering, for fear that criminal prosecution would topple the bank and, in the process, endanger the financial system. They also have not charged any top HSBC banker in the case, though it boggles the mind that a bank could launder money as HSBC did without anyone in a position of authority making culpable decisions.Clearly, the government has bought into the notion that too big to fail is too big to jail. "


Excusologies

-- by Horatio Algeranon

"Earnest" apologies
Become excuses
When they appease
For rank abuses

"Let them eat cake (crumbs)"


-- by Horatio Algeranon

A billion are malnourished
While bankers eat their cake
Their bonuses have flourished
With bailouts for their steak.

They speculate on commodities
And drive the food price up
Bringing poor-folk to their knees
So they themselves may sup.



 "While nearly a billion people go hungry, Goldman Sachs bankers are feeding their own bonuses by betting on the price of food. Financial speculation is fueling food price spikes and Goldman Sachs is the No 1 culprit." -- Christine Haigh of the Word Development Movement 



For more on the subject, read Econolyin' and Wreckonomics

Mixed Message

-- by Horatio Algeranon

The message 
That is spoken
Is mixed:

"The system 
Isn't broken, 
It's fixed"

Tuesday, January 22, 2013

Geoengineering


-- by Horatio Algeranon

While geoengineering
To some, may sound endearing,
It might produce Macbeth,
The "Great Blue Screen of Death".

And most unfortunately,
Unlike the home PC,
When Earth has been polluted
It can't just be rebooted.



Keystone is the Keystone


-- by Horatio Algeranon

Keystone is the keystone
To change the climate change
Rejection is the right tone
To re-arrange the range.


In his second inaugural address, President Obama emphasized the seriousness of climate change.  If there is one issue that will (forever) define his own seriousness regarding climate change, it is his upcoming decision on the Keystone pipeline.

At the very least, we need to write in (to the White House, to members of Congress, to the local newspapers) to indicate why approving Keystone would be a very bad idea and why rejecting the project would send the powerful message which actually needs to be sent: that Obama, as President, and we, as a country, are serious about addressing climate change.

Anything less than outright rejection of Keystone will send just the opposite message.

Text of letter from top climate scientists to President Obama:


Dear Mr. President,
You take office for the second time at a critical moment. As you may know, the U.S. has just recorded the hottest year in its history, beating the old mark by a full degree; the same year that saw the deep Midwest drought, and the fury of Hurricane Sandy, also witnessed the rapid and unprecedented melt of the Arctic ice pack.
If we are to restrain the rise in the planet's temperature, it will require strong action from, among others, the planet's sole superpower. Some of that work will be difficult, requiring the cooperation of Congress. But other steps are relatively easy.
Eighteen months ago some of us wrote you about the proposed Keystone XL tar sands pipeline, explaining why in our opinion its construction ran counter to both national and planetary interests. Nothing that has happened since has changed that evaluation; indeed, the year of review that you asked for on the project made it clear exactly how pressing the climate issue really is.
We hope, as scientists, that you will demonstrate the seriousness of your climate convictions by refusing to permit Keystone XL; to do otherwise would be to undermine your legacy.
Thank you,



For another ditty on this, read Glocken Keystone

Devilishly Good


-- by Horatio Algeranon

Simple can be good
But then, it can be bad
The Devil's in the details
When Heaven's to be had.



To paraphrase Einstein (who was actually referring to scientific theory): "Make things as simple as possible, but not simpler.”  

People too often forget the "not simpler" part.

Dealing with "black carbon" is a good example in the case of climate. As climate scientist Ray Pierrehumbert noted in the comments to You read it here first (or before these other guys, anyway)

Even leaving aside uncertainty about the net climate effect of black carbon mitigation (e.g. cooling effect of organic aerosols vs. warming effect of absorbing aerosols over high albedo surfaces), controlling black carbon, or any other short lived forcing agent, should not be viewed in any way as substituting for CO2 reduction. You can defer controls on black carbon for decades and still get the climate benefit once you implement them, but CO2 is forever, so action on CO2 is not deferrable. If black carbon reductions are justified on health grounds, do it for that reason, but don't pretend that doing it now is an important contribution so solving our climate problems.

Monday, January 21, 2013

For Whom the Bill Tolls

-- by Horatio Algeranon

The Honest Borker 
Sets controls
Decides for whom
The clime bill tolls.

Sunday, January 20, 2013

Moby Dick


-- by Horatio Algeranon

Captain Nayhab 
Once set sail
To overcome 
The Great White Whale

With FOI's 
And harpoon stat
He poked the Whale
And made it mad

The whale turned round
And sank the ship
And that was that
The end of trip

The Piquewad lies
On ocean floor
And will not prod it
Any more.



If you don't know who "Captain Nayhab" is, think about who uses "FOIs" in the context of the climate "debate", is obsessed with "exposing" climate scientists for who they "really" are and is rankled by the perception that he has not been given his "due respect" by the science community.

Terms of Service


-- by Horatio Algeranon

If Swartz was a "criminal"
So are you
And could be prosecuted
For "hacking" too.

The "Terms of Service"
To the State
Are strict and harsh 
If that's your fate.


Who can honestly say with absolute certainty that they have never violated "terms of service"? (basically what Aaron Swartz was being prosecuted for)

Who can honestly say that they actually know (or have even read, to say nothing of followed to the letter) all the "terms of service" (or "terms of use")  for all the software and online services they have used over the years? (eg, before you click on that "yes" box to start a service or download software)

Who can can honestly say with complete assurance that they have never downloaded music, games or other software in violation of the "terms of use" (ie, illegally)?

Who can honestly say that they have never installed software on more than one computer when the "terms of use" allowed it on only one?



ALEX STAMOS*  "So. Aaron was accused of, as been discussed a couple times, downloading too many files, or checking too many books out of the library. He found a loophole that he—that was a convenient way for him to get access to a lot of the JSTOR documents...."

"You know, I can’t actually condone everything Aaron did. I think—as I have written online, I think what he did was perhaps, you know, discourteous or inconsiderate of taking advantage of the, you know, library privileges that he was basically granted. But at no time did he actually do any actions that I would consider hacking...."

"...at what point does somebody doing something that is allowed become in excess of authorization? What Aaron was doing was exactly the same activity that thousands of people do at MIT every year: He was going and looking at documents. Now, he was doing it at a much wider scale. He did it more than they seemed to want. But at what point does he exceed authorization? And by having these incredibly broad definitions and a word that doesn’t really mean anything, like "authorized," we end up in a situation where if a prosecutor doesn’t like you or doesn’t like what you did, if it happened to use a computer, they can find a way to call it "hacking" and an abuse of that system."

 *Stamos is "chief technology officer of Artemis Internet. He is a computer security and forensics expert who had planned to testify on Aaron Swartz’s behalf during his upcoming trial."

Friday, January 18, 2013

Legal Conflict

-- by Horatio Algeranon

When Moral Law tests Penal
The Moral mostly loses
For Penal can be venal
And Moral flat refuses



"Moral" in the sense of "adherence to higher principles"* eg, universal human rights like "life", "liberty", "equality", "justice", "peace", "freedom" (of speech, of "information" {scientific knowledge, about decisions and actions of public officials, etc}, to assemble, from unwarranted search and seizure, from fear, to be safe in one's home, from torture and other inhuman and/or degrading treatment, from arbitrary arrest and detention, etc).
*"Post-Conventional level" in Lawrence Kohlberg's "stages of moral development"
The "Moral" does not always lose (Martin Luther King, Jr. and Gandhi are notable examples to the contrary) but usually, it does.

In the United States, even the Constitution (and amendments including the "Bill of Rights" and treaties to which the US is signatory), which codifies many of the "higher principles" and is supposed to be the highest law of the land, is sometimes disregarded by the very folks who have taken an oath to uphold it.


Thursday, January 17, 2013

Quick and dirty Calculations


-- by Horatio Algeranon

"Back-of-the-envelope calculations"
Are driving me to drink
"Back-of-the-TP compootations"
Are better, I would think.

Deck the Blogs

-- Horatio knows it's a bit late but is still dreaming of a Watt Christmas

Deck the blogs with posts of folly, 
Fa la la la la, la la la la. 
Tisdale's reason to be jolly, 
Fa la la la la, la la la la. 

Spawn we now our say a-puerile, 
Fa la la, la la la, la la la. 
Troll the blogs and dis the "GRL,"
Fa la la la la, la la la la. 

See the amazing fool before us, 
Fa la la la la, la la la la. 
Squeeze the flarp and join the chorus. 
Fa la la la la, la la la la. 

Follow me in cherry measure, 
Fa la la la la, la la la la. 
While I tell of false-pride treasure, 
Fa la la la la, la la la la. 

Fast away the short trend passes, 
Fa la la la la, la la la la. 
Hail the spew, ye lads and lasses, 
Fa la la la la, la la la la. 

Sing we clueless, all together, 
Fa la la la la, la la la la. 
Heedless of the clime and weather, 
Fa la la la la, la la la la. 




GRL = Geophysical Research Letters

If you don't know what the third line refers to, read Tisdale Fumbles, Pielke CheersFavorite Denier Tricks, or How to Hide the Incline, and He knows not what he's doing.

If you don't know what the rest of it refers to, there is no hope.

Wednesday, January 16, 2013

Perfect NONSENSO


– by Horatio Algeranon

Tisdale claims “It’s ENSO”
Rawls claims “It’s the sun”
Tis the SUNSO
Perfect SENSO
Welcome to the Wattsup fun


If you have no clue what that is about, ENSO it goes might clear things up (or not).

The Doers


– by Horatio Algeranon

They may not know
Just what they do
But know just who
They do it to


For one specific context, read He knows not what he's doing.

For the more general context, read Recreational Reality.


Tuesday, January 15, 2013

Burning down the house


-- Horatio Algeranon's parody of the "Talking Heads"


Wattsup?, you might get what you’re after
Cool babies, denyin’ but not a denier
I’m an untowardinary guy
Burning down the house
Hold tight, wait ’till the century’s over
Hold tight, we’re in for nasty weather
There has got to be a way
Burning down the house
Here’s your trick, a pack of lies, time for bloggin’ overboard
Obfuscation is here
Close enough but not too far, maybe you know where you are
Lightin’ fire with liar
All wet, hey you might need a braincoat
Shakedown, schemes walking in broad daylight
We’re lookin’ at three to five de-grees
Burning down the house

It was always a crazy place, I only listen to myself

Gonna come in first place
Scientists on their way to work said, “Baby what did you expect?”
Gonna burst into flame, go ahead

Burning down the house

My blog’s re-al-i-ty contrary
That’s right, don’t want to alert nobody
Some posts sure can sweep me off my feet
Burning down the house
No visible means of support and you have not seen nothin’ yet
Everything’s stuck together
I don’t know what you expect staring into the internet
Lighting fire with liar

Burning down the house

Burning down the house
Burning down the house



Most discussions about climate change focus on the heating effect of increased atmospheric CO2 (eg, shown with the "global temperature" graph), but there is another effect that may be just as insidious: the increasing acidity of the oceans, discussed in Ocean Acidification: The Other CO2 Problem (Doney, et al., 2009)

If you are a sea creature or plant, acid can also "burn".


Monday, January 14, 2013

Lucky Horseshoe


– by Horatio Algeranon

I’ll clutch my Golden Horseshoe
When they burn me at the stake
If horseshoe luck is with me too
“Dead ringer” I will make.



"dead ringer" =  “carbon copy”

In his "acceptance" of the Golden Horseshoe Award for "The most brazenly damaging and malign Bad Science of 2013", David Rose said 

"I’ll be clutching it when they burn me at the stake."

Horatio can only assume this is a reference to what must be a "Giordano Bruno Complex", variant of the more common "Galileo Complex," wherein you believe you are Galileo being persecuted for your scientific beliefs (but with a slightly more extreme outcome).

Just when Horatio thinks the "skeptics" can't possibly get any goofier... they do.


They left Horatio's ditties in the "goof-dust" long ago and competition is now out of the question.

Ships Ape


-- by Horatio Algeranon

What a trip
To let the apes
Run the ship
Aground on capes

But when they sink 'er
Out at sea
We'll all go down
In history.


Climate change deniers (eg, in the US Congress and the Australian Parliament) are like apes piloting the ship. When they sink her, (which they eventually will do, given enough time) they will take everyone down with them -- to the bottom.


Bearing the Truth


-- by Horatio Algeranon

The truth laid bare
For all to see
Is common cause
For humanity

But deny is what
We'd rather do
Than bear the truth
And tell it too.


The Progress Trap


"Portal to the Past", original oil painting

-- by Horatio Algeranon

We're in a "Progress Trap"
A snare of our own making
An Eco-humility gap
"The Earth is for our taking"

With locomotive fast in motion
And pedal to the floor
We can't accept at last the notion
That less is sometimes more 



"There is a pattern in the past of civilization after civilization wearing out its welcome from nature,  overexploiting its environment, overexpanding, overpopulating...This is what I called in ‘A Short History of Progress’ the ‘progress trap.’ We have set in motion an industrial machine of such complexity and such dependence on expansion that we do not know how to make do with less or move to a steady state in terms of our demands on nature." -- Ronald Wright (quoted by Chris Hedges inThe Myth of Human Progress)


For another ditty on this "uplifting" theme, read Portal to the Past.


Sunday, January 13, 2013

TranspAaroncy


-- by Horatio Algeranon

Let me be perfectly clear:
You've nothing at all to fear,
Unless you are transpAaront,
In which case, you are Aaront.



RIP Aaron Swartz

Eco-reverence


-- by Horatio Algeranon

Eternal growth
That's exponential.
And "Eco-posture"
Reverential.

Our economic
Policies
Have Mother Nature
On her knees.





"Skeptic" de-Turing


-- by Horatio Algeranon

The "Skeptics" are a Turing Test
For scientists to take
But no Deep Blue, which beat the best,
A cinch to tell they're fake.


Friday, January 11, 2013

The Delingpole


-- by Horatio Algeranon

They dance around the Delingpole,
And tangle up the facts
A web of lies, the final goal,
A totem pole for hacks.


James Delingpole is at it again, spreading falsehoods.

If you are not familiar with Delingpole, read The Interpreter of Interpretations

(H/T Eli Rabett)


Thursday, January 10, 2013

The Quants


-- by Horatio Algeranon

They're on a random walk
Down Wall Street, with a bottle.
The Quants, they love to talk,
But empty is their model.



Mathematical models are used in science all the time, but they are actually based firmly in reality (physics, chemistry, etc) --  at least most of the time ("String theory" being a notable exception).

A mathematical model that is not based firmly (or even weakly) in reality (in the realm in which it is being applied) is simply "mathturbation" and can be a very dangerous thing, especially when those using the "output" of the models ( financial "analysts" using the output of models developed by "quants" in the case of the financial system)  to make important decisions don't really even understand the models. Think "plugging into" the Black-Scholes formula and using whatever "pops out." 


For another ditty on a similar subject, read The Mathgic Box.

Wednesday, January 9, 2013

The Maraschinoso


– by Horatio Algeranon

Maraschinoso
Wary tricker
Virtuoso
Cherry picker


Warming never starts


-- by Horatio Algeranon

Warming never starts
It only ever stops.
Though lower in the past
The temperature always drops.


These "fundamental principles" (for "skeptics", at least) are illustrated very well by the Skeptical Science "Escalator"



Fluptuations


– by Horatio Algeranon

The fluptuation is extreme
A symptom of a rising mean.
As global warming feeds the fire
Temp extremes move ever higher.



Even if climate were not changing, temperatures from year to year would fluctuate (because of "weather") about the long term average value (the definition of climate). 

But climate is changing due to human influence (CO2), which means that the average is inching upward, so that the upward fluctuations (aka, "fluptuations") actually yield extremes that are higher than they were in the past (relative to the average of the past, which defines past climate). 

One of the significant issues with climate change is that extremes of temperature, drought, hurricane storm surge, rainfall, etc become both more likely (and hence more prevalent) and more severe.  This has implications for agriculture, hurricane impacts on coastal cities, heat wave impacts, etc.


Tuesday, January 8, 2013

Lies, damned Lies and Wall Street Bailouts


-- by Horatio Algeranon

They lied to pass the bailouts
They lied about the lending
They lied about the health of banks
And lied about the spending

They lied about the bonuses
They lied about foreclosures
They lied about the inside trades
And lied about disclosures

They lied about the total bill
They lied about relying
They lied about transparency
And of course, about the lying.



Anyone who actually believes the massive bank "bailouts" (including the original $700 billion in TARP monies and subsequent trillions in low interest loans from the Fed) fundamentally "fixed" what ailed the US banking system and economy should really read "Secrets and Lies of the Bailout" (by Matt Taibbi, Rolling Stone):
"The federal rescue of Wall Street didn’t fix the economy – it created a permanent bailout state based on a Ponzi-like confidence scheme. And the worst may be yet to come" -- Matt Taibbi


Kulluktive Insanity

US Energy Policy (aka SOS Kulluk) on the rocks

-- by Horatio Algeranon 

Energy "policy"
Has run aground
Like Shell's Kulluk
In arctic sound

Lashed by waves
Of Nature's wrath
Headed down
A dead-end path.



For more pictures of our energy policy (aka "SOS* Kalluk") click here (Alaska Dispatch).

*"Save Our Shell"


Monday, January 7, 2013

ClimEconomists

-- by Horatio Algeranon

ClimEconomists,
Like ducks at fairs:
Shoot one down
And another appears.



There seems to be an endless line of economists who actually believe that simply knowing something about statistics (and time series analysis in particular) is all that is required to assess (and challenge) the fundamentals of climate science (which involves real science: physics, chemistry, geology, biology, etc).

Every time a ClimEconomist (eg, Steve Levitt) is shot down with science ("An open letter to Steve Levitt"), another pops up to take it's place (eg, Nate Silver), who, in turn is shot down with science (FiveThirtyEight: The Number of Things Nate Silver Gets Wrong About Climate Change) to be replaced by yet another (ad economitum)

For a ditty on the same theme, read Untainted by Physics.

Run with the Roses

-- Horatio Algeranon's parody of "Run for the Roses" (Dan Fogelberg)


Born in the Daily
And raised on the flats
Of short-term regression 
On wobbly stats
With Curry beside you
To help you along
You'll soon be a-trending temp wrong.

All the strong cherry picking 
To set up the trend
El Niño beginning
La Niña at end
Can always prepare you
For what lies you tell
The run with the Roses is swell --

And it's run with the Roses
As fast as you can
Your flat-line delivered
Your moment's at hand
It's the chance of a lifetime
In a lifetime of chance
And it's high time you joined
In deniance
It's high time you joined
In deniance

From liar to liar
It's born in the blood
Denier for hire
And strength of the FUD
It's breeding and it's training
And it's something unknown
That drives you and Curries
You home.

And it's run with the Roses
As fast as you can
Your flat-line delivered
Your moment's at hand
It's the chance of a lifetime
In a lifetime of chance
And it's high time you joined
In deniance
It's high time you joined
In deniance


If you have no clue what the above is about, David Rose of the "Daily Mail" has just been awarded the coveted Golden Horseshoe Award. for his claim/article that Global warming stopped 16 years ago.

Horatio offers his sincerest congratulations.

Tamino offers an analysis of Rose's claim in "Temperature “analysis” by David Rose doesn’t smell so sweet"

Sunday, January 6, 2013

Sixteen Flat-years


-- Horatio Algeranon's rendition of "Sixteen Candles" 
(Luther Dixon and Allyson Khent)

Sixteen flat-years
Make a lovely claim
But not as lovely, as the cycle game
(As the cycle game, oh)
Trend on the flat-years
Make your wish come true
For I'll be wishing for La Niña, too
(For La Niña, too)
It's only sixteen (sixteen)
But it's my "no-warm" dream
(It's my dream)
It's the prettiest
Loveliest flat-line I've ever seen
(I've ever seen, oh)
Sixteen flat-years in Heartland will glow
For ever and ever for I love them so
(For I love them so)
It's only sixteen (sixteen)
But it's my "no-warm" dream
(It's my dream)
It's the prettiest
Loveliest flat-trend I've ever seen
(I've ever seen, oh)
Sixteen flat-years in Heartland will glow
For ever and ever for I love them so
(For I love them so)
For I love them so




Skeptical Science talks about the "16 flat years" myth

Saturday, January 5, 2013

I like R


-- by Horatio Algeranon

I like R, but I don’t love-R
She’s R’d, as you’ll discove-R
And idiosyncRatic
With regard to her syntactic
But statisticians swear by-R
The object of their desi-R


For another ditty on a similar theme, read "I love stats".

Friday, January 4, 2013

The Solution Sits

-- by Horatio Algeranon 
(after "The Secret Sits", by Robert Frost)

We dance round pols, high-snooted,
While the Solution sits outside, excluded.




As George Monbiot says in Forbidden Planet"We cannot restrain climate change without a political fight against plutocracy."